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eBook Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) download
Science
Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
ISBN: 0387890130
Subcategory: Mathematics
Pages 436 pages
Publisher Springer; 2009 edition (May 15, 2009)
Language English
Category: Science
Rating: 4.1
Votes: 448
ePUB size: 1550 kb
FB2 size: 1417 kb
DJVU size: 1130 kb
Other formats: docx doc lrf rtf

eBook Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) download

by Louis Anthony Cox Jr.


Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Risk analysis is as old as the first cave dweller mulling how to survive winter or woolly mammoths. It remains essential today in our world of accidents, disease, climate change and terrorism. Drawing substantially on his own work, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA can be applied even to challenging and complex systems.

Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Download (pdf, . 7 Mb) Donate Read.

The book is devoted to the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems.

Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems. Autoren: Cox J. Louis Anthony. The book is devoted to the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems. This book is written for practitioners using rational quantitative risk analysis in various areas. The methods and strategies included are good enough to help one make effective risk management decisions.

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies.

It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too comple

It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too comple. In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies.

Электронная книга "Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems", Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Электронная книга "Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems", Louis Anthony Cox J. .Эту книгу можно прочитать в Google Play Книгах на компьютере, а также на устройствах Android и iOS. Выделяйте текст, добавляйте закладки и делайте заметки, скачав книгу "Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems" для чтения в офлайн-режиме.

Acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can improve risk management decisions and policies. It illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems. From the Back Cover: "Tony Cox is among the most active and creative architects and users of quantitative risk analysis. This book is full of interesting equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that characterize QRA and its applications to risk management.

It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in. telecommunications network infrastructure.

Louis Anthony Cox J. "Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain .

Individual sections of the book introduce QRA, show how to avoid bad risk analysis, illustrate the principles for doing better analysis, and then show specific applications and extensions.

Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA).

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Juce
I have used Cox's research in my own recent book, . He is a colleague who has written numerous articles on this topic and has combined those along with his practical experience to write this critical book. It touches on every major issue in the area of risk assessment - which includes many issues that other risk assessment authors either dare not touch or are simply unaware of.

The most impressive feature of this book is the litany of examples in literally every chapter. He draws on a wide spectrum of different fields including public health, airline safety, engineering risks and terrorism. It is an extremely comprehensive treatment of quantitative risk assessment methods and each method is backed up with practical applications.

For me, the most important part of this book is the large section Cox dedicates to "Avoiding Bad Risk Analysis". He systematically debunks what I think are the most popular methods in business today. I even used his phase "Worse than Useless" to describe such methods in my book (properly attributed, of course) because nothing else says it better.

But Cox doesn't just endorse every method used in quantitative risk assessment. He is careful to point out the potential flaws and proposes specific solution. Debunking these popular methods is the first step. The second step is adopting an improved quantitative approach to risk assessment. This book covers all of it.

Highly recommended.
Perius
This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager; understanding its examples requires only elementary probability, statistics and calculus, though the foundations are much deeper. The author uses direct language, and does not hesitate to declare a fashionable risk analysis technique "worse than useless." The author shows how not to do risk analysis, using simple but devastating examples to illustrate the weaknesses of prioritized investments, subject matter expert opinion, risk matrices and qualitative risk assessments, and the independence assumption. Then, case studies present constructive examples of good practice. Refreshingly, this text clearly distinguishes between threats from Mother Nature, and those posed by an intelligent adversary. There is unevenness, because this is an edited ensemble of papers originally published in a variety of technical journals; however, this is also a strength, because the appeal and scholarship underlying biological, engineering, and social science examples is broad. This is not a how-to guide, and won't help fill in a blank page risk analysis; however, this is an excellent source for the skeptical consumer of contemporary risk management advice and products, and hopefully will have some influence with policy makers who are the source of simplistic and dangerous guidance.

Gerald G. Brown
Distinguished Professor of Operations Research
Naval Postgraduate School
National Academy of Engineering
INFORMS Fellow